Monday, May 18, 2020

Leadership to Prevent COVID-19 in the United States and Two Other Countries


I'm guessing someone's going want to react to this politically. Please don't do that. Look at this from the perspective of leadership, not politics. 

Here is a fact-checked timeline of the first 6 months of the U.S. response to COVID-19 spread in the United States. Some references are made to several countries who made different choices and how they fared. "Leader" refers to a U.S. national leader. When you connect the dots, how do you evaluate the U.S. leadership? Remember, focus on leadership choices, not personalities.

2018: Leader eliminates Pandemic Unit of the National Security Council in the Spring of 2018, not liking the report from its director the day before that the U.S. is not prepared for a pandemic. (see former directors and/or homeland security advisors Timothy Ziemer. Tom Basset, Luciana Borio)

2019: U.S. Leader fires the epidemiologists Bao-Ping Zhu and Dr. Linda Quick, assigned overseas to follow possible pandemics in China, delaying America's response to COVOD-19 by two months or more. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-cdc-exclusiv/exclusive-u-s-axed-cdc-expert-job-in-china-months-before-virus-outbreak-idUSKBN21910S

In early November 2019, Intelligence officials warn  Leader that a virus spreading in China could have "cataclysmic" impact on the U.S. Leader ignores.

In early January, 2020, Leader begins getting daily briefings on the spreading virus and was urged to take action before it was too late. Leader continues to be non-responsive. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/i-feel-anguished-stephen-morrison-warned-covid-19-coronavirus-pandemic-threat/

Jan 21, 2020. First known case in U.S. World Health Organization (WHO), reports virus risk globally is high. South Korea also reports first case

Jan 22, 2020. After 3 months of warnings without any action taken, Leader reports: "We have it under control. It's going to be just fine." 

January 30th: WHO declares virus a global health emergency. Leader holds a campaign rally in IA.  Leader blocks travel from China, not realizing the virus already has a foothold in the US.

Feb 2nd: Leader comments on Fox News: "We've pretty much shut it down."

Feb 3: New Zealand begins restrictions to slow virus they know is coming, the first case of which doesn't actually appear for another 25 days.

Feb 4th. Leader: "We have a very small number in the country right now with it...we're in very good shape."

Feb 5th. Two weeks after the first infection, South Korea flattens the curve. Even though the US and South Korea reported their first case the same day, South Korea responded immediately. Now 4 months behind South Korea, on May 18, the U.S.has still not implemented the successful strategies of South Korea.  

February 14, 2020:  Leader fights to reduce CDC budget by $693 million including funding to "emerging infectious disease," and "public health preparedness and response". http://thenationshealth.aphapublications.org/content/50/2/1.2

Feb 24. Leader comments: "the Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. The stock market is starting to look very good to me."

Feb 25th: CDC warns Leader that the "virus was not contained and would grow into a pandemic." https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/14/where-is-the-cdc-trump-covid-19-pandemic

Feb 26th: Contrary to the warnings of his medical advisors, Leader comments "Cases in the US is going to be down, close to zero."

Feb 27: Leader: "One day, like a miracle, it's going to disappear."

Feb 28th. Leader calls the threat of the virus an expanded "democratic hoax."

Feb 28th. New Zealand reports first COVID-19 case.

March 4th. Leader blames predecessor for the crisis, not mentioning it was he himself who shut down many of predecessor's initiatives to prevent and prepare for this event.

On March 6th, Leader proclaims "Anybody that wants a test can get a test." (On May 18th, the date of this writing, there are still not tests available for the average citizen unless they have COIV-19 symptoms. Note: most new cases cases are spread by those without symptoms.)

March 9th: After many epidemiologists in the US, as well as his Intelligence resources that gave Leader 4 months warning, (and being briefed daily for two months), Leader still states, "This blindsided the world."

March 13th: Now, 6 -8 weeks behind in responding to dally warnings, when asked about his slow response, Leader says "I don't take responsibility at all."  That week, the number of new cases was doubling every 3 days.
March 14: 2,826 cases

March 25. Four weeks after the 1st case, New Zealand goes on national lockdown. four days before it has it's first death.

April 5th. After 2 weeks of national lockdown, New Zealand peaks, and curve not only flattens, but declines rapidly. Due measures taken, South Korea has flattened curve in two weeks; New Zealand in 6 weeks. Fifteen weeks after 1st case, still no lockdown in U.S., starting to level at 22,000 new cases a day.
April 14, 2020, Much to the concern of international leaders and American scientists, Leader pulls out of major funding of the W.H.O., the organization depended on world-wide for pandemic control.

April 14: 609,240 cases

April 14: Leader shown to be connected with promoting Protests against CDC guidelines through Michigan Free Fund (Devos Funded), Operation Gridlock, Freedom Works (Koch Bros). Stephen Moore, one of the major organizers of Protests nation-wide, appointed to Leader's 'Reopen America' Council. (NYT, The Daily, Apr, 22, 2020).

April 17: Desparate for economic recovery, and Ignoring his own criteria (and that of medical professionals), Leader promotes "opening" of three States on twitter. https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

April 22: The CDC, confirms again that Leader has repeatedly stopped them from accurately reporting vital pandemic information, as well as the recommendations they felt responsible to share with the public.

May 15 - 18: Forty eight states relax stay-at-home orders with national nation-wide infectious finally starting to flatten. Although 18 states have flattened the curve, only in 9 are cases falling: MN, IA, IL, TN, FL AK, AL. States with the fastest rising cases remain South Dakota, Arkansas, Maine, North Carolina, Texas, and Wyoming. (IHME).

May 18: 1,549,359 cases

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In the graph below (click to enlarge), it can be seen South Korea, the first nation to react quickly, flattened the curve in two weeks.  It increased a bit after "opening the country", but they have regained control and cases are falling significantly.  New Zealand responded the most quickly, engaging a national shutdown before they had the first death. This gave them one of the best turnouts of any country in the world. By contrast, and disappointingly, the U.S. is doing by far the worst of any country in managing the virus.